March 2026 delivered another month of lower electricity spot prices across the National Electricity Market, with all regions recording year-on-year declines. Key developments during the month included:
- NEM spot prices fell 18.1% year-on-year, with the largest reductions in Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland.
- Renewable penetration increased to 42.4%, while both coal and gas generation shares declined.
- Battery discharge increased more than 270% year-on-year, highlighting the growing role of storage in balancing the grid.
- Electricity futures prices increased across all regions, indicating a shift in forward market sentiment despite softer spot outcomes.
These results reflect continued strong renewable output across the NEM and reduced reliance on higher-cost thermal generation. At the same time, rising futures prices suggest market participants are factoring in emerging risks, including global energy market volatility and potential changes in fuel cost expectations.
However, should spot prices remain soft throughout April, we are likely to see futures converge.
National Electricity Update
Spot Prices
Spot prices across the National Electricity Market (NEM) were lower in March 2026 than in March 2025, with all regions recording year-on-year declines.
| Region | Mar-25 ($/MWh) | Mar-26 ($/MWh) | % Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| NSW | 89.96 | 70.36 | -21.8% |
| QLD | 79.01 | 62.64 | -20.7% |
| SA | 61.79 | 52.80 | -14.6% |
| TAS | 100.04 | 91.04 | -9.0% |
| VIC | 61.75 | 44.74 | -27.5% |
| NEM Avg | 78.51 | 64.32 | -18.1% |
Victoria experienced the largest reduction in wholesale pricing, followed by New South Wales and Queensland. South Australia also recorded lower prices, although declines were more moderate compared with February.
Overall, the NEM average price declined by 18.1% year-on-year, reflecting continued strong renewable generation and reduced reliance on higher-cost gas-fired generation.
Futures Prices
Electricity futures prices increased materially during March, reversing the relatively stable conditions observed in February and indicating a shift in market expectations.
| Region | Month Open | Month Close | Jan-23 – Mar26 Avg | % movement | Movement vs LT Avg |
| NSW | 94.25 | 105.75 | 116.99 | +12.2% | -9.6% |
| QLD | 77.64 | 85.53 | 95.95 | -10.2% | -10.9% |
| SA | 88.15 | 92.38 | 101.05 | -4.8% | -8.6% |
| VIC | 73.56 | 78.46 | 74.42 | +6.6% | -5.4% |
| NEM (Avg) | 83.40 | 90.53 | 97.60 | +8.6% | -7.2% |
All regions recorded increases in forward prices over the month, with New South Wales and Queensland experiencing the largest upward movements.
Despite this increase, forward prices across most regions remain below long-term averages observed since January 2023, indicating that while market sentiment has shifted, underlying supply conditions are still considered relatively favourable. Victoria was the exception, with prices moving above its long-term average.
The divergence between falling spot prices and rising futures prices highlights the forward market’s sensitivity to emerging risks and changing expectations for future supply and fuel costs.
Generation Mix
Renewable generation continued to increase across the NEM in March, contributing to lower emissions intensity and reduced reliance on thermal generation.
| Metric | Feb-25 | Feb-26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total generation (GWh) | 18,529 | 18,242 | -1.5% |
| Renewable share (%) | 40.0% | 42.4% | +2.4 % |
| Coal share (%) | 56.2% | 53.3% | -2.9 % |
| Gas share (%) | 3.4% | 2.9% | -0.5% |
| Battery discharge (GWh) | 74 | 274 | +270% |
| Renewable curtailment (GWh) | 302 | 544 | +80% |
| Emissions intensity (kgCO₂e/MWh) | 571 | 549 | -3.9% |
Renewable penetration increased to 42.4% of total generation, supported by strong solar and wind output across the NEM. This displaced both coal and gas generation, with coal share declining by 2.9 percentage points and gas falling to 2.9% of total supply.
Battery discharge increased significantly year-on-year, reinforcing the growing role of storage in supporting system flexibility and managing variability in renewable generation.
Renewable curtailment also increased materially, reflecting periods of strong renewable output where system constraints limited the ability to fully utilise available generation.
Overall, emissions intensity declined compared with March 2025, although the rate of improvement was more moderate than observed in February.
State Electricity Update
New South Wales
Spot
NSW average spot prices declined to $70.36/MWh in March 2026, down from $89.96/MWh in March 2025 (−21.8%). This reflects softer overall market conditions compared with the prior year, with fewer extreme pricing events.
Futures
| Contract | Month Open | Month Close | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CY26 | 91.82 | 103.19 | +12.4% |
| CY27 | 95.58 | 111.12 | +16.3% |
| CY28 | 93.97 | 107.90 | -14.8% |
| CY29 | 95.60 | 104.15 | +9.0% |
Generation Mix
| Metric | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total generation (GWh) | 6,448 | 6,596 | +2.3% |
| Renewable share (%) | 36.1% | 34.5% | -1.6% |
| Coal share (%) | 59.3% | 56.5% | -2.8% |
| Gas share (%) | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| Battery discharge (GWh) | 12.3 | 67.0 | +444% |
| Renewable curtailment (GWh) | 70.0 | 137.4 | +96% |
| Emissions intensity (kgCO₂e/MWh) | 574 | 576 | +0.3% |
Queensland
Spot
Queensland spot prices averaged $62.64/MWh in March 2026, down from $79.01/MWh in March 2025 (−20.7%), consistent with broader NEM price reductions.
Futures
| Contract | Month Open | Month Close | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CY26 | 74.19 | 82.78 | +11.6% |
| CY27 | 80.16 | 91.29 | +13.9% |
| CY28 | 78.14 | 87.96 | +12.6% |
| CY29 | 78.06 | 83.75 | +7.3% |
Generation Mix
| Metric | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total generation (GWh) | 5,652 | 5,640 | -0.2% |
| Renewable share (%) | 27.4% | 39.1% | +11.7% |
| Coal share (%) | 69.0% | 59.7% | +6.3% |
| Gas share (%) | 5.4% | 4.8% | -0.6% |
| Battery discharge (GWh) | 19.9 | 96.0 | +382% |
| Renewable curtailment (GWh) | 35.3 | 79.7 | -126% |
| Emissions intensity (kgCO₂e/MWh) | 638 | 541 | -15.2% |
Victoria
Spot
Victoria recorded one of the largest price reductions, with average spot prices falling to $44.74/MWh in March 2026 from $61.75/MWh in March 2025 (−27.5%).
Futures
| Contract | Month Open | Month Close | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CY26 | 65.83 | 72.11 | +9.4% |
| CY27 | 72.38 | 79.25 | +9.5% |
| CY28 | 75.85 | 80.50 | +6.1% |
| CY29 | 80.17 | 85.50 | +6.7% |
Generation Mix
| Metric | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total generation (GWh) | 4,196 | 4,146 | -1.2% |
| Renewable share (%) | 46.4% | 42.6% | -3.8% |
| Coal share (%) | 64.1% | 65.2% | +1.1% |
| Gas share (%) | 1.0% | 1.2% | -0.2% |
| Battery discharge (GWh) | 22.3 | 73.0 | +227% |
| Renewable curtailment (GWh) | 91.3 | 205.0 | +125% |
| Emissions intensity (kgCO₂e/MWh) | 663 | 704 | +6.2% |
South Australia
Spot
South Australia prices averaged $52.80/MWh in March 2026, down from $61.79/MWh in March 2025 (−14.6%), a more moderate reduction relative to other regions.
Futures
| Contract | Month Open | Month Close | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CY26 | 87.00 | 93.79 | +7.7% |
| CY27 | 84.33 | 90.03 | +6.8% |
| CY28 | 88.75 | 92.18 | +3.8% |
| CY29 | 92.50 | 93.50 | +1.1% |
Generation Mix
| Metric | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total generation (GWh) | 1,325 | 1,187 | -10.4% |
| Renewable share (%) | 73.0% | 66.3% | -6.7% |
| Coal share (%) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gas share (%) | 16.0% | 13.8% | -2.2% |
| Battery discharge (GWh) | 19.4 | 37 | +91% |
| Renewable curtailment (GWh) | 106 | 122 | +15% |
| Emissions intensity (kgCO₂e/MWh) | 193 | 235 | +21.8% |
Closing Commentary
March reinforced the ongoing structural transition within the National Electricity Market. Strong renewable generation and increasing battery participation continue to support lower spot price outcomes and reduce reliance on gas-fired generation during peak periods.
However, the rise in forward electricity prices during the month highlights a shift in market sentiment. While current supply conditions remain relatively favourable, the forward market is increasingly responding to external risks, including global energy price movements and uncertainty around future fuel costs.
This divergence between spot and futures markets underscores the importance of a proactive and informed procurement strategy. As the market continues to evolve, electricity pricing will remain influenced by renewable availability, system constraints and broader global energy dynamics.
Leading Edge Energy will continue to monitor these developments closely to support clients in navigating market volatility and making informed energy decisions.
Explainer: Why we focus on Wholesale Futures Prices
Wholesale Futures Price: This reflects what the market expects wholesale electricity spot rates to be in future periods. The offers that commercial and industrial (C&I) customers receive via Leading Edge Energy are closely correlated to wholesale prices on the ASX Energy futures market; this is why we focus on these prices in our commentary.
Spot Price: This represents how much the spot market is charging for electricity currently based on demand and supply. Spot prices go up when demand is high and supply is tight. You can view live Spot Prices here.
You can learn more about the difference between wholesale electricity futures and spot prices in our blog section.
Disclaimer: The information in this communication is for general information purposes only. It is not intended as financial or investment advice and should not be interpreted or relied upon as such.
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