The National Energy Market (NEM) is a noisy place and keeping track of pricing can be complicated. As Energy Experts, we constantly monitor wholesale futures prices so we can help businesses like yours secure the most favourable rates at the right time.
Each month, we compile an electricity market update that gives a snapshot of the market, highlighting issues such as demand and supply which affects pricing.
We’re the energy experts so you don’t have to be.
New South Wales
- Futures prices for 2020 dropped slightly. 2021 prices climbed while 2022 and 2023 remained consistent.
- Increased rainfall has replenished Lake Eucumbene to 30 per cent, but Snowy’s output is still restricted.
- AGL signed a major deal for battery storage for four large-scale batteries – 50MW/100MWh each – in NSW with Maoneng.
- Prices for 2020 dropped from 8.9 cents per KWh to 8.5 cents per KWh.
- Prices for 2021 climbed slightly to 7.5 cents per KWh from 7.4 cents per KWh.
- Prices for 2022 and 2023 remained stable at 7.2 cents per KWh
How did supply and demand affect prices?
- Warm weather led to less demand, although ‘extra’ megawatts were diverted south to Victoria.
- The Federal Government will fast-track the upgrade of the NSW to Queensland interconnector to offset the closure of Liddell next year. This has not led to a significant drop in pricing. Most of the flow will head south from Queensland to New South Wales and Victoria.
Baseload Futures Price 4 November 2019
| 2020 | 8.5c per kWh |
| 2021 | 7.5c per KWh |
| 2022 | 7.2c per kWh |
| 2023 | 7.2c per kWh |
Queensland
- Futures prices for 2020 stable at 7.2 cents per KWh.
- Prices for 2021 are also looking good at 6.3 cents, down from 6.4 cents per KWh.
- Prices for 2022 are slightly cheaper than a month ago at 6.2 cents per KWh with prices for 2023 dropping to 6.2 cents from 6.3 cents per KWh.
How did demand and supply affect prices
- Prices in Queensland are soft due to there being plentiful supply in the state.
- Daily prices in Queensland are also soft due to strong solar generation with Rooftop PV coupled with lower demand.
- The 700-Megawatt Callide B Queensland coal-fired generator will shut down 10 years ahead of schedule in 2028, prompting fears that night time spot prices will spike.
Baseload Futures price 4 November 2019
| 2020 | 7.2c per kWh |
| 2021 | 6.3c per kW |
| 2022 | 6.2c per kWh |
| 2023 | 6.2c per kWh |
South Australia
- Prices for 2020 dropped marginally from 9.99 cents per kWh to 9.92 cents.
- Prices 2021 dropped slightly from 7.9 cents last month to 7.84 cents.
- 2022 saw a substantial drop from 7 to 6.8 cents while 2023 prices dropped from 8.5 cents to 8.4 cents.
How did demand and supply affect prices?
- Lower demand and good wind and solar generation in throughout the whole month translated into softer spot prices.
- With the issues on Basslink continuing through October, SA was required again to send megawatts across the interconnector into VIC linking the two spot price outcomes
Baseload Futures Prices 4 November 2019
| 2020 | 9.92c per kWh |
| 2021 | 7.84c per kWh |
| 2022 | 6.8 c per kW |
| 2023 | 8.4c per kW |
Victoria
- Prices in Victoria are at record highs. The return to service of the Bass Strait interconnector has not alleviated the pressure.
- The Australian Energy Regulator has approved Network Tariff increases for Victoria at an average of 3.5 percent for 2020. You can read the AER’s full 2020 Electricity Distribution Annual Tariff Proposal here.
- Origin’s Mortlake was estimated to come back online in December but has been pushed back. Loy Yang A is also expected to come back online later than expected.
- Futures prices for 2020 dropped marginally to 10.2 cents per KWh. Prices for 2021 edged up to 8.2 cents per kWh. Prices for 2022 dropped slightly to 6.8 cents per kWh. Prices for 2023 were stable at 7 cents per KWh.
How did supply and demand affect prices?
- Increased volatility on the market has already been registered and futures for Q3 and Q4 are rising steadily in the forward curve.
- Victoria relied on Victoria to rely on NSW and S.A. to import energy in October.
- High levels of wind generation throughout the month prevented prices for spiralling out of control.
Baseload Futures Prices 4 November 2019
| 2020 | 10.2c per kWh |
| 2021 | 8.2c per kWh |
| 2022 | 6.8c per kWh |
| 2022 | 7c per kWh |
We hope that you have found this market wrap useful. If you would like to know what the current and forward curve rates are, we can provide you with a forecast and guide you to help secure the best rates on the market.
We have helped businesses around Australia cut their energy procurement costs and helped others make direct savings through network tariff changes. Chat to one of our energy experts for a 100-per cent obligation-free consultation.
